Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov OddsNurmagomedov Odds-290Gafurov Odds+235Over/Under2.5 (-125 / -105)LocationEtihad Arena in Abu DhabiTime2 p.m. ETTVESPN+ PPVOdds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 294 with our DraftKings promo code! 

The UFC 294 pay-per-view main card kicks off on Saturday afternoon with bantamweights Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov.

On a fight card full of mismatches, this one is actually somewhat competitive with Nurmagomedov, who's looking to rebound from a recent loss to Jonathan Martinez, a moderate favorite over Gafurov.

Gafurov has fallen short in a UFC fight and a Contender Series bout, but he could gain some traction with a victory over Nurmagomedov if he can finally break through on Saturday.

Here's my look at Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov at UFC 294.

Tale of the TapeNurmagomedovGafurovRecord17-318-5Avg. Fight Time9:0715:00Height5'8"5'7"Weight136 pounds135.5 poundsReach (inches)70"68"StanceOrthodoxSouthpawDate of birth4/5/19925/17/1996Sig Strikes Per Minute3.543.07SS Accuracy47A%SS Absorbed Per Minute2.152.90SS Defense56G%Take Down Avg1.032.50TD Acc16'%TD Def65b%Submission Avg1.20.0

I have generally – and unsuccessfully – bet against Said Nurmagomedov (unrelated to Khabib) at the UFC level, viewing him as a relatively low-volume striker with minimal offensive wrestling enthusiasm.

However, I like him in this fight against Gafurov and project Nurmagomedov as the most significant moneyline edge – relative to the betting market – of any fighter on the card.

His controversial loss to Jonathan Martinez has aged well; Nurmagomedov won the distance striking (31-22), landed three takedowns, and had a pair of submission attempts. More than 70% of fans and 60% of media scorecards scored the bout for the Russian.

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Nurmagomedov has an elite guillotine choke, which he can sink in against overly enthusiastic grapplers. Even if he doesn't get it on the first attempt, Nurmagomedov will keep adjusting until he finds a way to cinch up that choke; I'm highly impressed by his mastery of the technique.

Unless Gafurov can successfully wrestle Nurmagomedov for three rounds without getting his head stuck in that guillotine – and that seems unlikely, given his substandard cardio and 1-5 record in decisions – I have difficulty seeing him winning consistent minutes in this matchup.

Nurmagomedov vs Gafurov Pick

Gafurov will have moments in the striking and potentially land takedowns, too.

Still, Nurmagomedov should land significantly more damage on the feet and seems more likely to keep his game coherent for a 15-minute fight.

Neither fighter has lost inside the distance in their professional careers, but Nurmagomedov seemingly has the better hardware. Gafurov has suffered a knockdown in consecutive bouts under the UFC banner.

Bet Nurmagomedov up to -260, or include him in a parlay up to -275.

The Pick:

Said Nurmagomedov (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKingsParlay (+102, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Said Nurmagomedov (-225) & Islam Makahchev (-250)The must-have app for UFC bettorsThe best UFC betting scoreboardFree picks from proven prosLive win probabilities for your betsDOWNLOAD NOW